The New York Times and other media outlets have reported that John McCain has laid off at least 50 and possibly as many as 80 of his estimated 150 person campaign staff due to poor fundraising numbers. He raised 13 million in the first quarter and 11.2 million in the second, but only managed to have 2 million cash on hand for this disclosure. The problems seem to be that 1) they felt like they had to act like a frontrunner, hiring a lot of staff and doing pretty much everything a already nominated candidate does, 2) candidate eschews fundraising, and 3) candidate takes unpopular positions with donors and 4) they weren't actually the frontrunner, he is third in most polls, but he is the top placed non-Catholic, non-Mormon, which historically means he will win.
Compare to the third placed candidate on the democratic side, John Edwards. He raised 14 the first quarter and 9 in a disappointing second quarter for a total of 23 (McCain total 24.2). But the energy is different. Why? 1) The Campaign always knew they were not the frontrunner, and thus did not spend like one, they collected 14 million in the first quarter and still had 10 million cash on hand at the end, though I expect their ratio to be much lower this time due to Iowa and New Hampshire ad buys. 2) Candidate is an excellent fundraiser and 3) does not take unpopular positions with donors (it helps that he isn't in office) and 4) he is third in most polls, but is the top placed non-female, non African-American, which historically means he will win.
Comments (6)
If I had to guess, I would venture out and say a lot of McCain's fundraising is coming from expensive telephone and direct mail solicitation. That's how Republicans do it, it matches up with their donor base etc.
Anyway, the margins on that stuff aren't that great. It might cost $5 to solicit a potential donor in a quarter with a response rate of 3% and an average donation of $250. That means 100 potential donors will turn into 3 donors who gave a total of $750 and cost $500 to solicit.
Now if you are McCain and your supporters are starting to abandon you, even only slightly, you can see where your burn rate is going to approach your income. If his response rate drops to 2.5%, that same $500 only buys him $625 of donations.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side I'm sure Obama, Clinton and Edwards are spending a lot of time soliciting the big checks (which is cost effective, how much does 5 minutes of your time cost -- certainly much less than $2,300). But something else is different on the Democratic side. We don't historically do low dollar solicitation, many of our party members traditionally haven't been able to part with $100 or $250 and so it never really panned out. But there is this new class of hyper-involved young professionals (the lawyer who checks daily kos etc) who can give in small amounts, does their own research and gives on their own without being solicited.
So in many ways, the Republican model gave them a great advantage when we didn't have anything similar but now this new Democratic class of small donors who don't need to be solicited (at least from a financial standpoint of the campaign) is really leveling the playing field and tilting it to our advantage.
Additionally, there is a huge fundraising hit when the former frontrunner drops to second or even third. To paraphrase Kerry, you don't want to be the last person to contribute to a mistake.
Chris, the above is certainly true, but he is also trying to convince others to raise for him and throw fundraisers etc and I have heard he is truly unconvincing in these phone calls.
McCain: Hey James, its John McCain calling, I guess you know why?
Target: It's Jim. How are you John?
McCain: And your wife Nancy? Listen I need to ask you to help support my campaign, I know you've supported me in the past and I am grateful for that but I need to ask you to do it for me one more time, you know, like Britney
Target: What?
McCain: Great, great, well my staff will be sending out a personal note from me and an envelope for yo to put your check in, great talking to you James.
Staffer: He committed to 4600 through his wife, then?
McCain: Absolutely, write it up.
Tell that to Howard Dean "but is the top placed non-female, non African-American, which historically means he will win.". He bought the historical line that Governors beat Senators.
True, Smitty. But people overestimate Dean's top standing I think. He was never a true frontrunner in the sense that he was polling in the 40's or over 50. On experience, sadly the "best" man got it, it was hard to argue with Kerry's experience and ability once primary voters actually started paying attention, and when they did they didn't argue with it.
OK. That is just bullshit, Chris. True, Dean may not have been the frontrunner - NO ONE was when the primaries began. The fix was in on that race in January. You heard it right from the horses (James Carville) mouth at the IBEW hall.
Let's hope those days are over.