icon_beer.jpgThings to ponder: 1) Early exit polls in Kentucky say 41% of Clinton voters would vote for McCain in the general. 2) Should Georgia go to a mail-in only primary like Oregon? 3) Would BfD put up a fundraiser bat in order to fly me to Puerto Rico to cover their primary?

 

14 Responses to Kentucky & Oregon Open Thread

  1. odinseye2k says:

    Okay, that’s true on the gender overall. In OR, though, you have a 55-45 split and in KY it’s more like 80-20.

    Yeah, I’m not really saying the solidarity is bad – the thought was that the solidarity would be greater in places where it is more important (more importance on the historical nature of either candidate), and less so in the West, where affairs in that aspect are generally better.

  2. Drew says:

    Actually, 17% said gender was important in Oregon and 16% said gender was important in Kentucky, and both favored Hillary (nothing wrong with a little solidarity there, IMHO.)

    It’s the race question that was different – and also favored Hillary. That was more disconcerting.

  3. odinseye2k says:

    Sorry, above should be largER, not large. The numbers are like 10% on importance of each factor in OR, and more like 20% in KY.

  4. odinseye2k says:

    Nope, not really IRE. But then, in 2000, I thought Bush would be only a mediocre president, not a dangerous one.

    Also, it appears I have some validation for my racist / sexist theory between the hardcore Clinton areas like WV and KY versus Obama territory in the West:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226003

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225982

    In OR, we had very small numbers of people claiming race or gender was important – and those going for Obama and Clinton were well-aligned.

    In KY, we had large percentages citing these factors, and in both categories leaning heavily to Clinton (although there may be some correlation to her overall strength in the region – I don’t know how to control for those factors properly). However, I find it very interesting that the gender AND the race card go in Hillary’s favor out there.

    Again, I think that the higher sexism in those areas makes a much stronger call of solidarity (and probably the same for Southern blacks) than it does out West with those concerns being much less intense.

  5. innerredneckexposed says:

    did anyone think in Dec ’04 we would be p0wning right now?

  6. odinseye2k says:

    I’m pretty much on board with you there, IRE. I’m more than happy to wait until early June at this point if it makes everyone happy.

    And, one may eventually argue that MI and FL screwed themselves out of influence (even if the delegates are eventually seated) because they missed a chance to be the next “make or break” location, especially with potentially enlarged delegate counts that were the bounty of later-deciding states.

    I also think before the convention, Obama should be less concerned about getting on air with John McCain. Maybe only popping up to respond to attacks and occasionally light a firecracker under McCain’s campaign – like pinching him between his late embrace of Hagee for political points (against the independents for cuddling up to a hater, and against the haters for asking why it took him so long). But, he should spend that quiet time getting really well acquainted with the Rust Belt (Appalachia proper is probably worth writing off on this cycle – win them for the re-election bid by improving the place) and how to break open a couple of key demographics that he has yet to be able to really speak to.

    Meanwhile, McCain is such a wonderful opponent – his flip-floppery allows us to destroy his “experienced, confident” character line and also to piss off both independents and his base with the employment of appropriate dog whistles.

    And then BHO can sing kumbaya on the smoking crater that used to be the GOP.

  7. innerredneckexposed says:

    i mean if that is the case then she is counting every vote for the sake of her staying in the race, IMO. I got no problem with that but i just don’t want her to go negative when there is no mathematical chance of winning. That is divisiveness for the sake of divisiveness. and its not like Montana and Puerto Rico and other states votes won’t be counted if she isn’t running.

  8. plange says:

    IRE, I think she wants every vote counted, even if MI doesn’t advantage her.

  9. innerredneckexposed says:

    If you were to ask me, I would say that Michigan no longer benefits HRC. If she wants to seat the delegation (in a “fair” manner as she suggests, than the 60% of the people who didn’t vote for her need to be seated. Seeing as how every other candidate has now endorsed Obama, it seems like she would then lose Michigan in terms of votes and delegates. And if either FL or MI falls so does her argument, at least to me.

  10. odinseye2k says:

    I think I may also feel the need to start campaigning for Bob Barr in VA and NC …

  11. odinseye2k says:

    10 days to figure out how to get Florida and Michigan sorted out.

    It’s almost no longer important to the outcome, so any solution should technically be fine. However, to give DNC the power to set a calendar in the future, there should be some sanction against the delegation. Meanwhile, there shouldn’t be totally disenfranchisement. Just a swat on the wrist of sufficient sting to let the state parties know that they screwed up. Something simple like copying the Republicans and slashing the delegation in half.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_EXIT_POLL?SITE=DCUSN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

    Meanwhile, you get interesting dynamics in comparing Kentucky and Oregon.

    States to try and win with Obama in the lead:

    VA, NC, PA, OH, WI, MI (don’t ask me why those two states are a toss-up, he should demolish in those places). Pushing against McCain hard in a block between PA / OH and VA / NC (where Obama wins with 1 of those 4 assuming WI and MI are his) has got to be able to get something, especially with a lot of strategically placed help.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May20.html

    We don’t need to win Appalachia to get the Presidency, but we definitely could stand to be competitive.

  12. Mouth of the South says:

    Ruby: Is that a Hatfield and McCoy reference?

  13. Jen B. says:

    Ha! “She can sing the star spangled banner real good.” Yeah, that’s what I look for in my President. Maybe she should vote for Whitney Houston. Oh wait..

  14. Rubyduby says:

    Kentucky voters must all be related to these WV voters: http://therealnews.com/web/videoframeworksjsauto.php?currentid=1507&thisautoplay=true