Unfortunately, the popular vote doesn't mean anything.

Technically, you may be right Jen, but I don't think there is any scenario where either candidate gets 54% of the vote and loses the electoral college. 51% maybe, but 54% would be just too many votes.

Jen B. - The article goes on to say: "That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Abramowitz said."

One thing I don't quite know is how pollsters are factoring in changes in the electorate. A good rule of thumb is not to try to guess, just stick with old actualities instead of making estimates. Barring that you can do a truly random poll and just use that as your assumption.

Honestly, with the changes going on in Georgia I'd be surprised if McCain wins by more than 10% or less than 5%. The Insider Advantage poll is obviously not worth its weight in intertubes, but we already have a pre-existing trend (going back to 2000 and before) of Georgia's electorate getting more diverse and you would think Obama's presence on the ticket would only amplify that trend a little.

Kerry got about 23% of the white vote but 41% of the total statewide vote. According to the Insider Advantage poll Obama is getting 19% of the white vote but only at 38%.

Meanwhile, McCain is not getting as high of a % of the white vote as Bush got in the poll yet is at essentially the same overall percentage as Bush.

So, the state is getting more diverse, McCain is getting a smaller percent of the vote from a smaller majority and he'll get the same as Bush? I don't think so.

Not to mention that 18% of African Americans are NOT going to vote for McSame. Please.