Hometown Pollster Sees Big Win for Obama

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his “time for change” model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain.

This guy has correctly predicted the winner of every popular vote since 1988. From your mouth to God’s ears, Professor.


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5 responses to “Hometown Pollster Sees Big Win for Obama”

  1. jac1975 Avatar
    jac1975

    Not to mention that 18% of African Americans are NOT going to vote for McSame. Please.

  2. chris Avatar
    chris

    One thing I don’t quite know is how pollsters are factoring in changes in the electorate. A good rule of thumb is not to try to guess, just stick with old actualities instead of making estimates. Barring that you can do a truly random poll and just use that as your assumption.

    Honestly, with the changes going on in Georgia I’d be surprised if McCain wins by more than 10% or less than 5%. The Insider Advantage poll is obviously not worth its weight in intertubes, but we already have a pre-existing trend (going back to 2000 and before) of Georgia’s electorate getting more diverse and you would think Obama’s presence on the ticket would only amplify that trend a little.

    Kerry got about 23% of the white vote but 41% of the total statewide vote. According to the Insider Advantage poll Obama is getting 19% of the white vote but only at 38%.

    Meanwhile, McCain is not getting as high of a % of the white vote as Bush got in the poll yet is at essentially the same overall percentage as Bush.

    So, the state is getting more diverse, McCain is getting a smaller percent of the vote from a smaller majority and he’ll get the same as Bush? I don’t think so.

  3. PaulaG Avatar
    PaulaG

    Jen B. – The article goes on to say: “That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Abramowitz said.”

  4. Decaturguy Avatar
    Decaturguy

    Technically, you may be right Jen, but I don’t think there is any scenario where either candidate gets 54% of the vote and loses the electoral college. 51% maybe, but 54% would be just too many votes.

  5. Jen B. Avatar
    Jen B.

    Unfortunately, the popular vote doesn’t mean anything.

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