What next after Massachusetts?

blog_icon_obama.jpgMassachusetts Democrats — most especially Martha Coakley — have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and managed to give away a U.S. Senate seat that had been held by Democrats for more than half a century. With Republican Scott Brown headed to Washington, let’s speculate on what some of the long-term effects might be.


Is this the end of healthcare reform legislation?

Probably so. Brown promised throughout his campaign that he will be the “41st vote” against healthcare, which means that Senate Republicans can now sustain filibusters against any and all attempts to achieve final passage of a House-Senate compromise version.

It is possible that a healthcare bill could be “ping-ponged” to Obama’s desk if the House would simply agree to pass the Senate version of the bill, but that’s not likely to happen either. The House version of the healthcare bill only passed by a 220-215 margin. Coakley’s defeat in the Massachusetts election will surely scare off enough marginal Democrats in the House to keep that chamber from ever agreeding to pass the Senate bill.

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on healthcare reform being killed this year — which means it won’t resurface for another 15 to 20 years.

How would the loss of healthcare reform hurt Democrats?

Obama’s loss on this issue will further energize the teabaggers and birthers who are assuming effective control of the Republican Party and kill Democratic enthusiasm heading into this off-year election. Remember, the collapse of healthcare reform in 1993-94 was a key factor in the Republican wave that swept congressional Democrats out of office in the 1994 elections. The failure to pass healthcare reform this year would similarly discourage Democratic voters even as it fires up Republican activists.

The Democratic congressmen who are most endangered by the collapse of healthcare reform will be those in swing districts such as Jim Marshall and John Barrow of Georgia. Even though Marshall and Barrow voted against the Democrats’ healthcare bill, they will become prime targets of Republican PACs that will be looking for GOP candidates to finance in competitive districts. The defeat of healthcare reform won’t hurt congressmen in safe districts — but it could be an absolute killer for Blue Dogs.

Who’s really to blame here?

There’s no question that Democrats at the state level in Massachusetts blew it big time. Martha Coakley was a charisma-impaired candidate who got her doors blown off when she took it for granted that she could win an election without actually campaigning. Massachusetts Democrats should have nominated a candidate who would get out there and work for the office.

The biggest part of the blame should rest with Barack Obama and the Senate leadership, who bumbled and miscalculated on the healthcare reform issue every step of the way.

Shortly after Obama was elected in 2008, the question arose among the Senate Democratic leadership of what to do about the Joe Lieberman problem. There were many, many progressive Democrats who said loudly and clearly on websites like Daily Kos that Joe had to go. Obama and Harry Reid had the idea that it was better to be “inclusive” and “forgiving” of Lieberman and let him continue as a committee chairman because, after all, “he’s with us on everything but Iraq.” All of those dirty leftwing hippies at Daily Kos obviously didn’t know what they were talking about and should be ignored.

That really worked well.

Obama’s insistence on a “bipartisan” approach to healthcare and other issues was also a disastrous mistake for Democrats. Here’s a news bulletin for the Democrats in Washington: Republicans are the opposition party. One thing an opposition party does is oppose. It was obvious since Jan. 20, 2009 that Republicans were going to oppose every issue brought forth by the White House and Senate Democrats. It didn’t take a genius to see this — and yet, Democrats continued to believe that somehow a “bipartisan” consensus was going to be reached on healthcare reform.

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint said it about as plainly as it could be said back on July 20: “If we’re able to stop Obama on this, it will be his Waterloo. It will break him.” Did the Democrats think he wasn’t serious? Were they not aware that DeMint’s comment was a clear and concise summary of the GOP strategy? And yet, they continued to waste months of valuable time pursuing a “bipartisanship” that was never going to happen.

It’s also difficult to overstate the incompetence of Harry Reid as Senate majority leader. DeMint’s “Waterloo” remark made it obvious — from the middle of July on — that Republicans were not going to negotiate in good faith on any healthcare reform bill. But Reid and the Senate leadership kept allowing Republicans like Olympia Snowe to blow up the process and push back a Senate vote on the issue. The Republicans were simply trying to run out the clock on this issue — and Reid allowed them to do it. It turns out that the best political tactician in Washington was Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Even though he had only 40 Republicans to work with, he used the Senate’s archaic rules and the stupidity of the Democratic leadership to effectively kill the legislation.

Is there any reason for Democrats to be hopeful about the 2010 elections?

The indications are strong that Harry Reid is going to lose his reelection race for another term in the Senate. That’s about the best outcome Democrats can hope for, because a Reid defeat means that someone like Chuck Schumer, who’s actually competent, could become the majority leader. If the Democrats are even able to hold on to that majority.


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5 responses to “What next after Massachusetts?”

  1. J.M. Prince Avatar
    J.M. Prince

    Almost the funniest thing I saw all day yesterday.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matt-miller/test-your-understanding-o_b_430778.html

    from Matt Miller via Huff Post

    Matt Miller

    Author, The Tyranny of Dead Ideas

    Posted: January 20, 2010 09:26 PM

    Test Your Understanding of American Politics

    Given:

    * Massachusetts’ bipartisan health care reform a few years ago is the model for what Obama and the Democrats have been on the verge of passing in Washington.

    * Scott Brown supported the bipartisan Massachusetts health care reform (which has given the state near-universal coverage)

    * Scott Brown opposes the Democrats’ health care reform in Washington, and told voters he’d be the 41st vote to stop it.

    * Massachusetts voters, who overwhelmingly support the Massachusetts health care reform, have sent Scott Brown to Washington to stop Washington from enacting at a national level the popular plan Massachusetts enacted a few years ago.

    Which of the following explains Scott Brown’s victory over Martha Coakley? (Maybe I’m missing something, but I think these are the only three options):

    1) Scott Brown is a disingenuous idiot.

    2) Massachusetts voters are confused idiots.

    3) I’m an idiot, for expecting logic or reason to play any role in American political life at all.”

    The almost made me smile for all the pathetically predictable reactions from the whole media miasma & our cowardly caucus:

    [Via Atrios]

    “They Come In Force With Stealthy Stride, Our Obvious Course Is Now To Hide”.

    The other mordantly funny stuff tells me that we all need to take a breath and just pass the damn Senate Bill, like adults and yes, fix it later. Which sounds like a real sensible plan. But hey, that’s only coming from the ‘wild eyed’ leftys. So natch, no one is listening. Call Pelosi & Reid and tell them to locate their spines before we loose another generation & continue to impoverish industry, youth & all our non elderly in the nation with unaffordable non health care. JMP

  2. Zaid Avatar
    Zaid

    EFCA was dead around a year ago when the Dems. made a choice to get business folks on board cap and trade and health care and sacrifice labor. There are some other minor labor reforms they want to do, but who knows if it’ll go through. Brown might even support some of the milder stuff, he had lots of union support.

  3. J.M. Prince Avatar
    J.M. Prince

    If it’s going to be the end, they (GOP) should be seen as officially killing it. Loudly & Often. And that needs to be done ASAP, and with as much ceremony as we can muster. Do the full dress rehearsal on the filibuster, along with plenty of crowds of people yes dying for lack of health care. I know, they actually are littered across the landscape. The Democratic message should be, ‘We tried mightily to do this great thing, to save lives, we compromised with everyone & sundry, and they deliberately delayed a year so they might see a day when they could kill it. They bargained in bad faith on Everything, and this is the final proof. They had this plan from the beginning (cue Jim DeMint’s comments), and it’ll cost 40K people’s lives per year. Daily they should be reminding people of this in every way imaginable. Then have them do the filibuster have it go on for a few weeks if necessary. Have the courage to Shut the place down if necessary. Completely. Just to make certain that everyone knew, ‘It was killed this year due to a filibuster’. Then come back and start the reconciliation process which Bush did to get his Medicare Part D for drugs done with one vote to spare. That should have been the approach from the start, but Harry Reid thought he more clever & more ‘courtly & proper’ than all that. Have the Repug’s voting Every damn week on another Popular bit of the legislation broken down into manageable digestible bits. We’ll lose seats over this. But by the 3rd-4th year? We could see the legislation in some decent form resurrected.

    BTW? If the Dems weren’t so chickenhearted and scared? I’d do the full Franken on Brown. Part of the reason the Senate was so delayed, was that Coleman held up an election for 8 months. And everyone was always on the line hoping ‘tomorrow would be a better day!’ NO NEVER! The time is always incredibly short, and these things tend to happen always. Reconciliation should have been started on a separate track, as it should be now. They’re exhausted, and everyone else is too, but they need to make the effort & be seen as making the effort. Make the Rethugs Kill the bill. Make them filibuster it for real. It’s now been the longest ‘closet filibuster’ in US History, and seemingly no one knows this. Political messaging needs to be tighter & certainly more combative. How ‘Professor’ Obama can manage to do this is going to be one fine trick. The opposition has been united like a disciplined Army, and like a well disciplined Army with simple defensive goals, they’ve won this round. But they should be made to pay for their win. Every damn day for the rest of their miserable lives.

    So political malpractice? Sure, and enough of it to go around the world. Time wasting was the biggest factor here. The Repug’s? We’re Never bargaining in good faith, and we should be shouting that to the skies in every way possible. I don’t want to hear another damn word about this mythical beast ‘bipartisanship’ in the US Senate & Congress. And BTW? I’d not seat Sen. Brown until ALL holds were lifted on Every damn Obama nominee are lifted in the Senate & then votes held. On ALL of them. Or let him wait the full 10 days to do so. That’s playing hard ball and we’ve got to re-learn that every damn year I guess.

    And yeah, another key to the race was the ‘I’ve got mine now bugger off’ sense of a goodly portion of the self satisfied Democratic voting bloc in MA on the issue of health care. I saw SIEU jackets & T-shirts on many of the Brown supporters at several rallys. This is & was all about coalition building. Want the EFCA (Employee Free Choice Act)? That’s probably definitely gone for a generation. How’s that working for you guys now? It is beyond my comprehension how he got 20%+ of a Democratic vote, but she could not win w/o that support. All for a cute underwear model & millionaire who remained a political cipher up until the end. The time to play Calvin Ball with these clowns has arrived. We should USE our majorities to punish where we can, and revenge where we must. Or we die. It’s as simple as that.

    JMP

  4. Sara Avatar
    Sara

    Don’t blame the Massachusetts state party–Coakley wasn’t annointed, she won a primary. And one of the guys she beat in that primary will almost certainly be Brown’s challenger in 2012.

  5. Tim Avatar
    Tim

    as always Tom, you say exactly what the rest of us are thinking.

    I’m ready for the Dems to stop playing nice….for good….time to close the tent.

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