According to Public Policy Polling, Newt and Barack are running neck and neck in Georgia.

The money quote:

Even if Obama doesn’t end up winning in Georgia next year the vast differences in his support along age lines suggest Democrats should be competitive in the state in the years to come. Among voters under 65 Obama’s approval rating is a 52/42 spread. It’s only his horrid numbers with senior citizens at 27/68 that put his numbers in negative territory overall. As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two this state should start looking a lot ‘purpler’ than its red tinge in recent election cycles would suggest.

That’s right people. ¬†Georgia is trending purple. ¬†And purple is a lot more pretty than blood red.

H/T Jim Galloway, Political Insider

 

17 Responses to Newt and Barack Neck and Neck in GA

  1. JMPrince says:

    I’m with Tim here on that. And the latest approval of the massive ‘voter ID’ scam without a peep from the DoJ is more proof that we’ll be fighting this w/o adequate back-up. Once again. JMP

  2. Tim Cairl says:

    I am, Ralston’s no idiot in this matter and the UGA group isn’t doing it anymore from what I’ve read. In fact Jerry Keen’s company is in charge. They’ll be smart enough to cut a deal and not run afoul of the VRA/CRA.

    It would be better in this case to anticipate the worst scenario and work from there. To be caught off guard or unprepared would be devastating.

  3. Tim Cairl says:

    um, not to put a damper on this discussion, but the reality is we have re-districting before that. So expect a lot of the state house and senate districts and even local commission and school board districts, that the President won in 2008 will not have the same democratic performance in 2012.

    The GOP is not going to miss this fact.

    • Trevor Southerland says:

      I don’t think that’s missed on anybody, but I think our perspectives might be off a little.

      This poll is talking about the next 10 to 20 years. If by 2020, we can win enough seats in the legislature to either control one chamber or (more likely) the Governor’s mansion, we can prevent a horrible map from being drawn, meaning that they wouldn’t be able to make the districts work as good as they will from 2012-2020.

      But for all that to happen, we have to start working now.

    • Ed says:

      Any maps drawn in GA have to be reviewed by the courts anyway so I’m not super worried about too much.

  4. David says:

    The story here really isn’t the poll numbers, it’s that if the President works GA hard what to we win down ballot. And nationally, if GA is in play, then the GOP has no chance at defeating him.

    Here would be a vexxing question: which states does the win in 2012, that McCain lost in 2008?

  5. Delicate Flower says:

    “Georgia is trending purple.”

    Which is why we’ve lost seats in the legislature, every statewide office, and captured less and less of the overall vote almost uninterrupted in a decade.

    There’s alot of Pollyanna going round these days.

    • Trevor Southerland says:

      The numbers don’t lie, they just don’t.

      Granted, horrible campaigning and bad strategy can ruin numbers any day.

      • Gunner says:

        “Figures never lie but liars can figure”

      • Delicate Flower says:

        Numbers…

        2002

        491612 GOP ballots cast in senate primaru
        454733 Democrat

        511463 GOP Gov
        434,892 Dem Gov

        445, 902 GOP Lt Gov
        409,769 Dem Lt Gov

        2004

        651282 GOP Senate
        625154 Dem Senate Primary

        573878 GOP PSC Primary
        557850 Dem PSC Primary

        2006

        482117 Dem Primary
        419254 GOP Primary

        448106 Dem Primary Lt Gov
        406758 GOP Primary

        2008

        493,226 Dem Senate
        392902 GOP Senate

        Now THIS is where it gets good…

        2010! No incumbents in the Governor’s race…contested primaries all around. A true chance to gauge each party’s size…

        558,298 GOP Senate Primary
        352,385 Dem (ouch)

        680,499 GOP Gov Primary
        395,467 Dem Gov Primary

        525,287 GOP Lt Gov Primary
        327,618 Dem Lt Gov

        610,215 GOP SoS
        342,193 Dem SoS

        576,492 GOP Atty Gen
        338312

        433,652 GOP School Super
        338,899 Dem

        Quite simply: there are many many more Republicans than Democrats in Georgia. Lurking variables explain 2006 and i don’t think anyone wants that again.

        I’m now too lazy to back and look at the GE results but we’re averaging a solid low 40s to high 30s. That’s both with multi-million dollar campaigns, and ones where we do nothing. That’s against corrupt unethical Republicans and clean ones.

        You can blame strategy, whatever, fine. But these are pretty standard results at every level outside of our safe districts. I mean it is a badge of honor for most races now to get at 40%. And I mean, if they have bad strategy, what does it say about the candidates who COULDN’T BEAT THEM IN THE PRIMARY?

        So while the projected hypothetical numbers that have alot of variables that must fall into place with socialization and so on can give you hope, you’ll have to excuse me if I look at the ballot box and am un-enthused.

        I’ll look it up later but since we’re dealing with hypotheticals one of the polling firm has asked folks to self-ID D/R and we’ve lost those more and more since 2002.

        And one other thing, there’s 150 years of evidence to suggest Georgia, and the South, is quite content to be a one party place.

        • Trevor Southerland says:

          That’s cool. Some are content with living in the past, others of us are going to win the future.

          ;-)

    • EGaluszka says:

      We’re trending purple demographically. The issue is structural weakness within the Democratic Party. It looks like things are turning around on that front.

      • Steve Golden says:

        Eddy has hit the nail on the head. Demographically and statistically, Georgia could easily trend much bluer, and potentially even go Obama in 2012.

        But that means an insane amount of voter reg, GOTV, and the dismissal of general political apathy.

        If you asked me, I’d tell you our focus needs to be local. In order to have Georgia go for Obama we need to have a horrendous candidate (Gingrich, Newt) on the GOP side, a sudden and fortuitous influx of money, and the aforementioned foci on the ABCs of politics. That’s a pretty tall order, yes? But taking back seats in areas we can really win– now that’s possible.

        • Ed says:

          Dude…I had a much longer post but we’re behind by 300,000 in the general. Several hundred thousand fewer Dems than GOPs in the primaries and with an aberration in 2006 it has only gotten worse year after year. That’s not to say we can’t over come it but it won’t happen in 19 months.

          Look not ever race is winnable. Unless your saying between Nov 2010 and now, there’s been a seismic demographic shift… I just don’t see it happening.

          • Trevor Southerland says:

            Dude… where is anyone saying it’s going to happen in 19 months? I see a bunch of words like “potential” being thrown around.

            The point is… the future is blue! Or, at least purple.

            The quote I used from PPP even says “next decade or two” — I think it’ll be sooner than that… but numbers are on our side.

  6. Jen B. says:

    Hm. Is Georgia trending purple or is Newt just a horrible candidate?