Blog for Democracy

The Most Vulnerable Republicans in the Legislature

Over at the Georgia Neo-Con Echo Chamber Peach Pundit, Mark Rountree crunched the numbers and found the 10 most vulnerable Republican legislators in Georgia. Interestingly five of the most vulnerable legislators are party switchers.

Rank        District               GOP Incumbent                              Democratic Ideal

#1.            151                       Bob Hanner/Gerald Greene        66.57%

#2.            171                       Jay Powell                                           59.46%

#3.            138                      Mike Cheokas                                     59.43%

#4.            117                       Doug McKillip                                    58.05%

#5.            119                       Chuck Williams                                  56.08%

#6.            158                       Butch Parrish                                     56.02%

While Powell did not switch, his father was a longtime Democratic legislator. Williams did not switch either.

What does that mean…well to be honest I don’t know. It probably says something about how hard it is to defeat an incumbent, no matter what the numbers show, and how strong is the desire for power . The numbers make it even more baffling why Greene, Hanner and Cheokas would have switched, just looking at their partisan makeup.

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11 responses to “The Most Vulnerable Republicans in the Legislature”

  1. Steve Golden Avatar
    Steve Golden

    Maybe when I’m a 3L.

    Well, unless someone can raise me $100K and find someone that looks and sounds like me to do call time & door-to-door, I’m out this time around.

    I’m a former CM. I can’t half-a$$ my own campaign.

  2. Jen B. Avatar
    Jen B.

    HA! You’re so right. I was apparently conflating two PP front posters into the same person.

  3. Ed Avatar
    Ed

    I’m sure Shepherd’s victory will shock even Shepherd as he lost.

  4. Jen B. Avatar
    Jen B.

    Did Jason Shepard run and win while he was in law school?

  5. Chris Avatar
    Chris

    Well in a lot of districts only statewide numbers exist. But instead of looking for some sort of “ideal” that won’t be reproduceable for either party at a local level, just look at the average vote % that all candidates (whether statewide or not) get over time to give you an idea of what districts are winnable for either party.

  6. Tim Avatar
    Tim

    agree with Chris on this one, using the statewide numbers doesn’t make sense.

  7. Chris Avatar
    Chris

    This “Democratic ideal” is a flawed formula. What you want to see is average two party vote for each year and see if there’s a trend. Some of these districts are also good when you use that metric, but the fact that Tommy Irvin and Thurbert Baker got big majorities in Butch Parrish’s district (to pick one randomly) means absolutely nothing. It would be a huge waste of resources to run a candidate there and spend any money.

    Now – pick some random Gwinnett district where maybe a Democrat has never won but we’ve been averaging in the mid 40’s, and you’re much more likely to win there.

  8. Cobb County Observer Avatar
    Cobb County Observer

    Multi-task. 🙂

  9. Steve Golden Avatar
    Steve Golden

    Perhaps when most of my time isn’t spent in the GSU Law Library that would be a better idea.

  10. Cobb County Observer Avatar
    Cobb County Observer

    Didn’t you just move into Rich Golick’s district?

    http://www.peachpundit.com/2011/09/15/10-most-vulnerable-republican-districts-in-georgia/

  11. Steve Golden Avatar
    Steve Golden

    I’d like to see strong, viable Democrats run in each of these districts, which shouldn’t be too much to ask. Most of those folks should be just vulnerable enough (particularly a certain party-switching Athenian) to take them out with a good Democrat.

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