This is part 3 of a 3 part series.  Part 1 is here.  Part 2 is here.

Now understand this from your authors, we’ve done considerable study and research into the 2014 Senate race and the Democratic path to victory.  The people we are about to name as “those who should consider running” we name based on that model.

Eventually (2020, or maybe 2018) a Democratic path for victory in Georgia will potentially look far different than it will in 2014.  That being said, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t fight to win in 2014.

As the demographics change, and assuming Democrats are able to build an infrastructure we currently lack, Democrats will win based on a model from the north.  Which is, to win the metro areas by huge margins, lose the rural areas by huge margins, but overall capture 52 or more percent of the vote in regularity because of metro turn out efficiency.

But in 2014, that model will not work.  We need someone that metro Democrats can get behind, but that can also pick off a couple of percent in rural Georgia, thus, these are our recommendations for who we should be looking at.

DUBOSE PORTER

If we had the choice to pick who would be the Democratic nominee for Senate in 2014, it would be DuBose Porter.  Here’s why.

In 2014, what Democrats really need is someone with three qualities.  One is an ability to fundraise.  Two is someone with the ability to charm.  Three is someone that recognizes the need to have a professional, seasoned campaign staff.  We’ll address each of these, as it relates to DuBose, in turn.

DuBose Porter can raise money, and he is willing to sit down and do call time to bring it in.  Democrats need a person with this ability, and the list of people with this quality is slim.  DuBose knows everyone, and wouldn’t be afraid to call in some favors.

Next, we need a charmer.  Whenever we see DuBose, he is wearing a massive smile, and is probably one of the most genuinely kind people alive.  When we’re around him, we feel at ease, not uptight and tense like we might around many other politicians.  He has that Middle Georgia quality that is sorely lacking in many elected officials.  We’ve seen Democrats and Republicans in awe of him, and we truly do believe that his appeal is bipartisan.  He’s a moderate Democrat, and one that is from well outside metro Atlanta.  He is acceptable to metro voters.  Whether or not we make any inroads into rural Georgia is a different story.  While a Kasim Reed or Jason Carter would be dynamically fantastic candidates, neither of them have the appeal in Georgia’s more Republican strongholds.  DuBose was elected in conservative Dublin for decades.

Finally, we should probably address one of DuBose’s shortfalls.  In 2010, DuBose had a staff made up almost exclusively of Dubliners.  They were certainly young and smart, but not nearly seasoned enough to properly run a statewide campaign, much less one against Roy Barnes.  If DuBose is to run in 2014, he would be extremely well-advised to look at seasoned staff, people with experience in large campaigns.  Sure this will cost money, but we have to assume that we will be going up against a war chest the size of Tom Price’s, which totals in the multi-millions.

We’ve been told DuBose is considering running, and we certainly hope he does.  While we love people like Jason Carter, Kasim Reed, and Scott Holcomb, we do not believe any of them have the capability to do what DuBose can do- actually win a race statewide in 2014.

CONG. JOHN BARROW

Congressman Barrow should consider running.  In 2014, the Republicans are bound to come after him with a candidate that can string two sentences together, and he’ll lack the top of the ticket push that 2012 gave him in Augusta.  However; we’re told he’d only want to run if given a “clear path” — and well, there’s bound to be at least one loon qualify.  So while we would like to see him run, for many of the same reasons we’d like to see DuBose Porter run, we need him to get in sooner rather than waiting on the hand engraved invitation.

That being said, however, we here still prefer DuBose.

FMR. LT. GOV. MARK TAYLOR / FMR. SEC. OF STATE CATHY COX

We are told that the former Lt. Governor and former Sec. of State have no interest in returning to politics, but we wish they’d reconsider.  2006 was a disaster of an election year for many reasons, one of which ended up being what seems to be the permanent retirement from politics of the two people who clashed for the Governor’s nomination that year.

They both have good appeal both in metro and outside of metro, the question is now, can either one of them ever put the 2006 disaster behind them and return to the fold?

 

36 Responses to 2014: Those Who Should Consider Running

  1. JoeRational says:

    Isn’t it about time for David Adelman to come home? Or Caroline? GA needs them more than Singapore, I think.

    • Steve says:

      I love me some David Adelman. I actually wonder if he will be returning to Georgia soon, given that it has been 4 years.

      That being said, I’m not so sure his first act back from an Obama appointment would be to run for statewide office in Georgia. But I wouldn’t stop him if he tried.

      • Tim says:

        Would love to have my former State Senator back! But yeah, GA politics is prob not the place for him right now.

  2. Jules says:

    to your point-Swamp Rat…

    This just in from Twitter..

    Jason Carter ‏@SenatorCarter
    Columbus Mayor Theresa Tomlinson is addressing the State Senate. She would make a great Lt Governor or forget the “Lt” part! #gapol #gadems

  3. Swamp Rat says:

    I am a first time poster here. I happen to know Theresa Tomlinson, the Mayor of Columbus, and she is a very sharp Democrat who has done some good things in Columbus. She is an attorney and is well-respected in Columbus. I have no idea if she would even consider running for the US Senate or the Governor’s office in 2018, but she strikes me as an up-and-comer in Georgia Democratic Party politics.

    • Swamp Rat says:

      Here is some info for Theresa Tomlinson. http://www.columbusga.org/mayor/

    • Steve says:

      I’ve heard only good things about her. That being said, I think 2014 would be a bad year for her, because she is only known amongst Columbus and political circles (and the latter not incredibly well). If I could advise her, I would tell her to raise her statewide profile as well as her political profile over the next 4 years, and then go for it. I think she’s a prime example of the fact that we do have a bench, but we just need to cultivate it.

  4. Jules says:

    It’s too bad that we don’t have a few folks without so much baggage that could run. I know the GOP is targeting successful foundation and business people to consider it, where are ours?

    In this particular climate seems that someone without a long legislative history would and could serve just as well.

  5. Amanda Hugenkiss says:

    I am still prayerfully considering running.

  6. JMPrince says:

    Acclinis falsis animus meliora recusat.

    Again, bewildering as ever. JMP

  7. Lester Frederick says:

    wronng on all fronts. Teilhet sucked A**. Ken Hodges owned him like he worked at the Gold Club. If the Dems really want a winner then they should look at some of their females – like Margaret Kaiser.

    1. her voting pattern is not like Dubose – she isn’t a token Democratic legislator

    2. she’s a successful business owner.

    3. she has a familial lineage like no one else

    4. she actually has a statewide connections that would blow the minds of the BfD authors

    5. she’s passionate about wanting to serve on behalf of Georgians

    6. she can raise the money and volunteers

    • Waldo says:

      It would be interesting to see if she did have the statewide appeal you claim, but I don’t think think she has much name recognition outside of Grant Park, let alone outside the city. News media indicated she is gearing up for Mayor 2017. If she does run for senate it would be the sacrificial lamb.

      • Lester Frederick says:

        let’s see her mother is the Mayor of Athens and was formerly the tax commissioner for 15+ years – which means her mother personally knows every elected official in the State of Georgia.

        Her sister is the City Manager for Tybee Island – another person who personally knows most of the elected officials across the State.

        Her son participates in tournaments across the State which Margaret attends thus having contacts with regular folks.

        Now what more do you need Waldo. Name recognition is built not given.

        • Waldo says:

          Her mother sister best friend cousin doesn’t have the same name. Weren’t we talking name recognition?

          Oh, and name recognition doesn’t mean ability to name drop, it means that folks filling out the ballots know your name. I think you got it twisted to mean other folks on the ballot she may know.

  8. Drew says:

    Meh. I think the Democrats will be better off chasing suburban voters. There are more of them, they find harsh Republican rhetoric on “social” issues almost as off-putting as Democrats do, and the willingness of Republicans to use the threat of raising taxes on /them/ to protect lower taxes for the rich has led them to question whether it is even in their immediate economic interest to support a Republican.

    We should choose a suburban candidate with whom those voters can identify, so if the Republican Party nominates one of their many embarrassing candidates, those voters can feel comfortable casting a ballot for the Democrat.

  9. Melb says:

    Your anecdotal evidence is not really convincing. And to suggest that Teilhet was disliked is just wrong.

  10. Melb says:

    Correction: Most BFD people loathe him. Democrats obviously preferred him as their choice as evidenced by his wide margin of victory in the primary and Georgia voters preferred him over any other Democratic candidate in 2010.

    • John Q. Public says:

      No, most Democrats I talk to don’t care for him. It was one thing for him to run for Attorney General, but it would be quite another for him to run for Senate.

      And I wouldn’t be so sure about how much Democrats like him. Evidently, from talking to a number of other Democrats, Teilhet was hated a little more.

      But no, I don’t think Ken Hodges should run. Period.

      • Waldo says:

        I was wondering when Teilhet would come up.

        Why no Stephanie Benfield discussion? outside metro and metro appeal. Not currently elected.

    • Tim Cairl says:

      i don’t loathe him, i’m upset that he backed congressman lewis’ challenger this last year. It was a really bad political/personal call. Im hoping that was a blip.

  11. Melb says:

    What is sad is that this group completely missed or overlooked the candidate that outperformed every other Democrat in 2010, who has a statewide network, can raise lots of money, and is a conservative Democrat who was able to get cross party votes and currently works for a Democratic lawfirm – Ashe, Rafuse, and Hill!!! Yes, I am talking about KEN HODGES!!!! We should be begging him to run!

  12. Matt says:

    While I agree with this statement wholeheartedly:

    As the demographics change…Democrats will win based on a model from the north. Which is, to win the metro areas by huge margins, lose the rural areas by huge margins, but overall capture 52 or more percent of the vote in regularity because of metro turn out efficiency.

    I disagree with your analysis as to

    Mark Taylor and John Barrow cannot do that nor will they be able to bridge the gap between the Metro area and rural whites. Let’s face it, rural whites are not going to vote for us in any appreciable numbers, especially not in a Senate election. And in the process of pandering to these voters on issues across the board (contrary to belief, it’s not just social and foreign policy issues), they turn off core Democratic constituencies; it risks becoming a net-loss. This is especially true if the Republicans don’t go with Paul Broun.

    Look no further than the 2006 Gubernatorial election which featured none other Mark Taylor. Taylor’s pandering on gay rights, the death penalty, etc. turned off Democratic voters and led to an abysmal black turnout and gained next to nothing in the rural areas. He lost Chatham County (Savannah), Bibb County (Macon), and Muscogee County (Columbus), only won Fulton County by less than 8, and got destroyed in Rockdale, Newton, and Douglas, counties that would go Democratic in two years. In what was a great year for Democrats virtually everywhere else, Mark Taylor got beat by almost 20 points, registering less than 40%.

  13. Waldo says:

    While I like Dubose personally, and appreciate his dedication to our great state, I’m not convince he could generate enough appeal to win a statewide election. Sacrificial lamb? Sure, good pick, the happy warrior.

    We gotta go outside the box, outside the comfort zone, looking for those new leaders. GOP colored me impressed courting female basketball executives. We need more women, more doctors, nurses, teachers, scientist and less lawyers at every level of government.

    • John Q. Public says:

      I’m not sure looking at the GOP is the best idea. That basketball executive quickly shot down talk of her running.

      I absolutely agree we need to diversify. But there’s really no good “fresh” new candidates to run for Senate. I think with all of these new Congressional seats opening up, we need to have some of those types in the pipes.

  14. Lester Frederick says:

    what the hell?? Dubose Porter??? You have got to be kidding me. Dubose can’t find his way out of a wet paper bag. Did ya’ll miss the 2010 election season? The only thing Dubose “Mr. Aww Shucks” is good at selling is his newspapers. He can’t sell his ideas or platform. Dubose is a charmer? really? really? What’s he gonna do find a wife in the next 12 months to stand with him as he goes from county fair to county fair?

    Dubose can’t win statewide. Step away from the crack pipe. In case you forgot, Dubose Porter was the leader of the Democratic Caucus of the House of Representatives – yeah that doesn’t scream partisan at all. I’m so sure that those independent voters are gonna trip over themselves to vote for him.

    If Dubose runs – ya’ll Democrats are going to be in for a huge awakening. He’s going to play the role of “Republican Light” way better than Mark Taylor did. We all know what happens when independent voters have the choice to vote for a Real Republican versus an artificial Republican. Ask Mark Taylor to show you the skid marks that are still on his backside.

    Dubose won’t get a dime out of Black Metro Atlantans – not because he is an old white guy, but for the simple reason that he is an old white guy who knows nothing about Black folks issues.

    • Steve Golden says:

      DuBose Porter is a friend of mine, so I do take some offense to what you are saying.

      The fact that you are bringing up his divorce is despicable, and you should be ashamed of yourself. After many years of marriage, his wife filed for divorce from him. I don’t see how that reflects upon his ability to hold public office.

      Further, he may not be a progressive Democrat, but he sure as hell is not a Republican. He actually can raise money (he once raised $100k in a weekend), but 2010 was difficult for ALL Democrats not named Roy Barnes. You can’t blame him for losing a primary against Roy Barnes.

      I don’t know what vendetta you have against DuBose, but I (and many others) do not share it with you.

      • Lester Frederick says:

        if Dubose is your “friend” then you should kindly tell him not to run for fear of embarrassment. But hey don’t tell him so I can laugh all day…and the day after…and the day after.

        What you call “despicable” is reality. You must not know how politics work. Whomever is his Republican opposition will play over and over how their family is intact. You newbies think you understand optics and have no idea.

        I never said Dubose was a Republican. What I said is that he will play the Republican Light model very well. And he will. If you feel comfortable with asking your friends to swallow their Democratic pride and promote a Republican Light then go forth young man. I for one will not vote for him if that is the tactic he will use.

        For the record, post a clip where Dubose was forthright, convincing, and straight forward about his platform during the 2010 campaign. He had all the opportunity since Barnes was like “why the hell do I have to say why I deserve to win”.

        p.s. you should get your panties out of a wad now because we have a while until the 2014 election.

        • Trevor Southerland says:

          Lester, I get that you’re here to troll but I’m confused. In one statement you say DuBose being the former Leader of Democrats in the House will hurt him, then you accuse him of playing Republican light?

          Then you say “ya’ll Democrats” indicating you’re not a Democrat… in which case, what is your concern here, exactly? If DuBose Porter is such a horrible candidate, then you should be all for us nominating him, unless that is you understand that a candidate such as DuBose would be the Democrats best chance in 2014.

          • Lester Frederick says:

            Funny you call my comments as “trolls” – NOW. But when I was offering satirical comments to your team’s archnemis, Eric Cray, everyone was giving high fives.

            It’s also funny that the author of these “who should run/who shouldn’t run” posts is “Blog for Democracy” so was every BfD poster polled for this outstanding reporting? If so, then that’s who I’m referring to when I state “ya’ll Democrats”. If the entire group BfD authors believe DuBose is the most promising choice then no wonder “ya’ll Democrats” are in power.