Mr. Deeds goes to the winner's circle

"Deeds, who is also a rural state lawmaker, was able to win the primary over two well-funded and better known candidates, one of which was backed by the Democratic Governor's Association," Porter noted in a statement released by his campaign.

The same case can be made here in the Georgia Democratic Primary for Governor with DuBose Porter, who like Deeds, has grass roots popularity. Porter won in his rural district by 76 percent because he does something different than most politicians, he listens and represents his people and not the powers that be.

 

R. Creigh Deeds won because he had the experience and shared the values of Virginia's voters and I will win because I too have the experience and share the values of Georgia's voters. As history shows in Georgia, you can have $20 million and still lose to someone who only has $4 million if you are not connected to the people. I am connected to the people.

The victory by Deeds, a state senator, was one of the most stunning election turnarounds we've seen in a while.  Terry McAuliffe, a close friend of the Clintons and former head of the Democratic National Committee, raised mountains of money and was the frontrunner in the polls until a couple of weeks before election day.

The election seemed to turn in Deeds' favor after he was endorsed by the Washington Post and McAuliffe's campaign crashed and burned.  In a race with three strong candidates, Deeds pulled just under 50 percent of the vote and clobbered McAuliffe and Brian Moran, a former legislator.  (Local angle alert:  Peter Jackson, who was press spokesman for Cathy Cox in Georgia's 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary, worked in the Deeds campaign.)

His nomination sets the stage for a ferocious election battle this fall with Republican nominee Bob McDonnell.  The two candidates should be well-acquainted with each other.  McDonnell beat Deeds in the 2005 race for state attorney general by the razor-thin margin of 323 votes (out of 1.9 million cast).

Republican morale would no doubt be boosted by gubernatorial wins this year in Virginia and New Jersey, where GOP nominee Chris Christie is leading Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by 10 points in the latest poll.  If the GOP nominees win both races, you can expect the RNC to spin it as a sign that Americans are "sending a message" to the Obama administration and an omen of the party's resurgence in the 2010 off-year elections. 

Maybe, and maybe not.  Using the Virginia and New Jersey results as a crystal ball for the following election year can give you what the statisticians call a "spurious correlation."

You need look no further back than 2001, when Democrats swept the governor's races in both states.  In 2002, however, Republicans won additional seats in both the U.S. House and Senate (including Max Cleland's Senate seat).

On the other hand, Democrats again swept both governor's races in 2005, just one year before a Democratic tidal wave enabled the party to regain control of Congress.  That shows you that Virginia and New Jersey can tell you a lot about which party will succeed in the following election year.  Or not.