The smashing
landslide victory by Creigh Deeds in Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial
primary this week has given hope (or maybe a touch of boldness) to one of the
Democrats running for governor in Georgia, House Minority Leader DuBose Porter (D-Dublin).
“Deeds, who is also a rural state lawmaker, was able to win the primary over two well-funded and better known candidates, one of which was backed by the Democratic
Governor’s Association,” Porter noted in a statement released by his campaign.
The same case can be made here in the Georgia Democratic Primary for Governor with DuBose Porter,
who like Deeds, has grass roots popularity. Porter won in his rural district by
76 percent because he does something different than most politicians, he
listens and represents his people and not the powers that be.
R. Creigh Deeds won because he had the experience and shared the values of Virginia’s voters and I will win because I too have the experience and share the values of Georgia’s voters. As history shows in Georgia, you can have $20 million and
still lose to someone who only has $4 million if you are not connected to the
people. I am connected to the people.
The victory by
Deeds, a state senator, was one of the most stunning election
turnarounds we’ve seen in a while. Terry
McAuliffe, a close friend of the Clintons and former head of the Democratic
National Committee, raised mountains of money and was the frontrunner
in the polls until a couple of weeks before election day.
The election
seemed to turn in Deeds’ favor after he was endorsed by the Washington Post and
McAuliffe’s campaign crashed and burned.
In a race with three strong candidates, Deeds pulled just under 50
percent of the vote and clobbered McAuliffe and Brian Moran, a former
legislator. (Local angle alert: Peter Jackson, who was press spokesman for
Cathy Cox in Georgia’s 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary, worked in the
Deeds campaign.)
His nomination
sets the stage for a ferocious election battle this fall with Republican
nominee Bob McDonnell. The two
candidates should be well-acquainted with each other. McDonnell beat Deeds in the 2005 race for state
attorney general by the razor-thin margin of 323 votes (out of 1.9 million
cast).
Republican morale
would no doubt be boosted by gubernatorial wins this year in Virginia and New
Jersey, where GOP nominee Chris Christie is leading Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine
by 10 points in the latest poll. If the GOP
nominees win both races, you can expect the RNC to spin it as a sign that
Americans are “sending a message” to the Obama administration and an omen of
the party’s resurgence in the 2010 off-year elections.
Maybe, and maybe not. Using the Virginia and New Jersey results as a crystal ball for the following election year can give you what the statisticians call a “spurious correlation.”
You need look no further back than 2001, when Democrats swept the governor’s races in both states. In 2002, however, Republicans
won additional seats in both the U.S. House and Senate (including Max Cleland’s
Senate seat).
On the other hand, Democrats again swept both governor’s races in 2005, just one year before a Democratic tidal wave enabled the party to regain control of Congress. That shows you that Virginia and New Jersey
can tell you a lot about which party will succeed in the following election
year. Or not.
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